Development of Predictive Cost Models

Infrabel needs to evolve its pricing methodology, shifting from a model based on observed historical costs to an objective, predictive approach that incorporates the current condition of the asset base and future investment scenarios (CAPEX). The ultimate goal is to have a dynamic tool capable of simulating the impact of renewal policies, maintenance strategies, technological advancements, traffic adjustments and organisational and logistical factors on operating costs (OPEX).

The IMDM and ECOPLAN consortium developed a tool to project the operating expenditure (OPEX) base over a 30-year period, taking into account network ageing and capital expenditure (CAPEX) plans, and subsequently to derive the directly attributable costs (DAC) eligible for the calculation of network access charges. This establishes a link between Infrabel’s asset strategy and infrastructure pricing.

Furthermore, the tool incorporates predictive rules for various operational tasks. The chosen approach is hybrid, combining statistical analysis of historical accounting data with engineering expertise to define constructed variables that explain cost variations, linking them directly to field asset attributes, logistics data, network usage demands and technologies.